Kev Nqis Peev AI Loj Hlob: Kev Muag Khoom Siv Semiconductor (Chip) Thoob Ntiaj Teb Xav Tias Yuav Nce Mus Txog Qhov Siab Tshaj Plaws Hauv Xyoo 2025.
Nrog kev nqis peev muaj zog hauv kev txawj ntse cuav, kev muag khoom siv semiconductor (chip) thoob ntiaj teb yuav nce mus txog qhov siab tshaj plaws hauv xyoo 2025. Kev muag khoom yuav txuas ntxiv loj hlob thiab teeb tsa cov ntaub ntawv tshiab hauv ob xyoos tom ntej (2026-2027).
Thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 16, Lub Koom Haum Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) tau tshaj tawm nws daim ntawv qhia txog kev kwv yees kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb ntawm SEMICON Nyiv 2025. Daim ntawv qhia kwv yees tias thaum kawg ntawm xyoo 2025, kev muag khoom thoob ntiaj teb ntawm cov khoom siv chip (cov khoom tshiab) yuav nce 13.7% txhua xyoo, mus txog qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm US $ 133 billion. Ntxiv mus, kev muag khoom yuav txuas ntxiv loj hlob hauv ob xyoos tom ntej, mus txog US $ 145 billion hauv xyoo 2026 thiab US $ 156 billion hauv xyoo 2027, txuas ntxiv rhuav tshem cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm.
SEMI taw qhia tias lub zog tseem ceeb ntawm kev loj hlob txuas ntxiv hauv kev muag khoom siv chip yog los ntawm kev nqis peev hauv kev xav txog kev txawj ntse, kev nco, thiab cov thev naus laus zis ntim khoom siab heev uas cuam tshuam nrog kev txawj ntse cuav.
Tus Thawj Coj ntawm SEMI, Ajit Manocha, tau hais tias, "Kev muag khoom siv chip thoob ntiaj teb muaj zog heev, ob qho tib si pem hauv ntej thiab tom qab yuav loj hlob rau xyoo thib peb sib law liag, thiab kev muag khoom kwv yees tias yuav tshaj $ 150 billion thawj zaug hauv xyoo 2027. Tom qab peb qhov kev kwv yees nruab nrab xyoo uas tau tso tawm thaum Lub Xya Hli, peb tau tsa peb qhov kev kwv yees muag khoom siv chip vim muaj kev nqis peev ntau dua li qhov xav tau hauv kev txhawb nqa kev thov AI."
SEMI kwv yees tias kev muag khoom thoob ntiaj teb rau cov khoom siv tsim khoom pem hauv ntej (wafer fabrication equipment; WFE) yuav loj hlob 11.0% xyoo-dhau-xyoo mus txog $ 115.7 billion hauv xyoo 2025, nce ntxiv los ntawm kev kwv yees nruab nrab xyoo ntawm $ 110.8 billion thiab tshaj qhov kev kwv yees xyoo 2024 ntawm $ 104 billion, teeb tsa cov ntaub ntawv tshiab. Kev kho dua tshiab ntawm kev kwv yees muag khoom WFE feem ntau qhia txog kev nce siab tsis tau xav txog hauv DRAM thiab HBM kev nqis peev uas tsav los ntawm kev thov AI computing, nrog rau kev koom tes tseem ceeb los ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev nthuav dav peev xwm. Tsav los ntawm kev thov nce ntxiv rau kev xav tau siab heev rau kev xav thiab kev nco, kev muag khoom thoob ntiaj teb WFE kwv yees tias yuav loj hlob 9.0% hauv xyoo 2026 thiab nce ntxiv 7.3% hauv xyoo 2027, ncav cuag $ 135.2 billion.
SEMI qhia tau hais tias Tuam Tshoj, Taiwan, thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb yuav tseem yog peb lub teb chaws uas yuav cov khoom siv chip loj tshaj plaws los ntawm xyoo 2027. Thaum lub sijhawm kwv yees (txog xyoo 2027), Tuam Tshoj yuav txuas ntxiv nqis peev rau hauv cov txheej txheem laus thiab cov nodes tshwj xeeb kom tswj tau nws txoj haujlwm ua tus thawj coj; txawm li cas los xij, kev loj hlob yuav qeeb tom qab xyoo 2026, nrog rau kev muag khoom maj mam poob qis. Hauv Taiwan, kev nqis peev tseem ceeb hauv kev nthuav dav peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab yuav txuas ntxiv mus txog xyoo 2025. Hauv Kaus Lim Qab Teb, kev nqis peev tseem ceeb hauv cov thev naus laus zis nco siab heev, suav nrog HBM, yuav txhawb nqa kev muag khoom siv.
Hauv lwm thaj chaw, kev nqis peev yuav nce ntxiv hauv xyoo 2026 thiab 2027 vim yog tsoomfwv cov nyiaj txhawb nqa, kev siv zog hauv zos, thiab kev nce peev xwm tsim khoom rau cov khoom tshwj xeeb.
Lub Koom Haum Nyiv Electronics thiab Information Technology Industries Association (JEITA) tau tshaj tawm daim ntawv qhia rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2nd hais tias, raws li qhov kev kwv yees tshiab los ntawm World Semiconductor Trade System (WSTS), kev nqis peev hauv cov chaw khaws ntaub ntawv txawj ntse yuav yog tus tsav tsheb tseem ceeb, txhawb kev loj hlob sai ntawm kev thov rau lub cim xeeb, GPUs, thiab lwm yam logic chips. Yog li ntawd, kev muag khoom thoob ntiaj teb semiconductor kwv yees tias yuav nce 26.3% txhua xyoo mus txog $ 975.46 billion los ntawm 2026, mus txog $ 1 trillion cim thiab cim cov ntaub ntawv siab tshiab rau xyoo thib peb sib law liag.
Kev muag khoom ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor Nyiv Pooj txuas ntxiv mus txog qhov siab tshiab.
Kev muag khoom ntawm cov khoom siv tsim khoom semiconductor hauv Nyiv Pooj tseem muaj zog, nrog rau kev muag khoom thaum Lub Kaum Hli Ntuj xyoo 2025 tshaj 400 billion yen rau lub hlis thib 12 sib law liag, teeb tsa cov ntaub ntawv tshiab rau tib lub sijhawm. Vim muaj qhov no, cov khoom lag luam ntawm cov tuam txhab khoom siv chip Nyiv Pooj tau nce siab hnub no.
Raws li Yahoo Finance, txij li 9:20 sawv ntxov Taipei lub sijhawm rau hnub tim 27, Tokyo Electron (TEL) cov feem tau nce 2.60%, Advantest (lub chaw tsim khoom siv kuaj) cov feem tau nce 4.34%, thiab Kokosai (lub chaw tsim khoom siv zaj duab xis nyias) cov feem tau nce 5.16%.
Cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm los ntawm Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) rau hnub tim 26 qhia tau hais tias Nyiv cov khoom siv semiconductor muag (suav nrog kev xa khoom, qhov nruab nrab txav mus los 3 lub hlis) tau txog 413.876 billion yen thaum Lub Kaum Hli 2025, nce 7.3% piv rau lub sijhawm tib yam xyoo tas los, cim lub hlis thib 22 ntawm kev loj hlob. Kev muag khoom txhua hli tau tshaj 300 billion yen rau 24 lub hlis sib law liag thiab 400 billion yen rau 12 lub hlis sib law liag, teeb tsa cov ntaub ntawv tshiab rau lub hlis ntawd.
Kev muag khoom poob 2.5% piv rau lub hli dhau los (Cuaj hlis 2025), cim qhov kev poob thib ob hauv peb lub hlis.
Txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau lub Kaum Hli 2025, kev muag khoom ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor hauv Nyiv Pooj tau txog 4.214 trillion yen, nce 17.5% piv rau lub sijhawm tib yam xyoo tas los, ntau tshaj cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm ntawm 3.586 trillion yen teev tseg hauv xyoo 2024.
Nyiv lub lag luam thoob ntiaj teb ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor (los ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev muag khoom) tau txog 30%, ua rau nws yog lub lag luam thib ob loj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb tom qab Tebchaws Meskas.
Thaum Lub Kaum Hli Ntuj hnub tim 31, Tokyo Telecom (TEL) tau tshaj tawm nws cov txiaj ntsig nyiaj txiag, hais tias vim muaj kev ua tau zoo dua li qhov xav tau, lub tuam txhab tau tsa nws lub hom phiaj nyiaj tau los rau xyoo nyiaj txiag 2025 (Lub Plaub Hlis 2025 txog Lub Peb Hlis 2026) los ntawm ¥ 2.35 trillion thaum Lub Xya Hli mus rau ¥ 2.38 trillion. Lub hom phiaj nyiaj tau los ntawm kev ua haujlwm kuj tau tsa los ntawm ¥ 570 billion mus rau ¥ 586 billion, thiab lub hom phiaj nyiaj tau los ntawm kev sib koom ua ke los ntawm ¥ 444 billion mus rau ¥ 488 billion.
Thaum Lub Xya Hli 3, SEAJ tau tshaj tawm daim ntawv qhia txog kev kwv yees qhia tias vim muaj kev thov ntau rau GPUs thiab HBMs los ntawm AI servers, Taiwan lub tuam txhab semiconductor siab heev TSMC yuav pib tsim cov khoom siv loj ntawm 2nm chips, tsav kev nqis peev ntau ntxiv rau hauv 2nm thev naus laus zis. Ntxiv mus, Kaus Lim Qab Teb txoj kev nqis peev hauv DRAM / HBM kuj tseem loj hlob. Yog li ntawd, qhov kev kwv yees rau kev muag khoom siv semiconductor Nyiv (hais txog kev muag khoom ntawm cov tuam txhab Nyiv hauv tsev thiab thoob ntiaj teb) hauv xyoo nyiaj txiag 2025 (Lub Plaub Hlis 2025 txog Lub Peb Hlis 2026) tau raug kho dua tshiab los ntawm qhov kwv yees yav dhau los ntawm 4.659 trillion yen mus rau 4.8634 trillion yen, nce 2.0% piv rau xyoo nyiaj txiag 2024, thiab xav tias yuav ncav cuag cov ntaub ntawv siab tshaj plaws rau xyoo thib ob sib law liag.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Kaum Ob Hlis-22-2025