Qhov kev thov thiab cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm cov khoom ntim khoom siv siab heev thoob plaws ntau lub khw sib txawv ua rau nws qhov loj ntawm kev ua lag luam los ntawm $ 38 billion mus rau $ 79 billion los ntawm xyoo 2030. Kev loj hlob no yog los ntawm ntau yam kev thov thiab kev cov nyom, tab sis nws tseem tswj hwm qhov kev nce qib tas mus li. Qhov kev hloov pauv no tso cai rau cov khoom ntim khoom siv siab heev kom txhawb nqa kev tsim kho tshiab thiab kev hloov kho, ua tau raws li cov kev xav tau tshwj xeeb ntawm ntau lub khw sib txawv hais txog cov khoom tsim tawm, cov kev xav tau kev siv tshuab, thiab cov nqi muag khoom nruab nrab.
Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev ywj pheej no kuj ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo rau kev lag luam ntim khoom siab heev thaum qee lub khw muag khoom ntsib kev poob qis lossis kev hloov pauv. Xyoo 2024, kev ntim khoom siab heev tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev loj hlob sai ntawm kev lag luam chaw khaws ntaub ntawv, thaum kev rov zoo ntawm cov lag luam loj xws li mobile qeeb heev.
Cov khoom siv ntim khoom siab heev yog ib qho ntawm cov khoom lag luam uas muaj zog tshaj plaws hauv cov khoom siv semiconductor thoob ntiaj teb. Qhov no yog vim muaj kev koom tes ntawm ntau yam qauv lag luam dhau ntawm OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test), qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam hauv ntiaj teb, thiab nws lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv cov khoom lag luam ua tau zoo.
Txhua xyoo muaj nws cov kev txwv uas hloov kho qhov xwm txheej ntawm cov khoom siv ntim khoom siab heev. Xyoo 2024, ntau yam tseem ceeb uas cuam tshuam rau qhov kev hloov pauv no: kev txwv ntawm lub peev xwm, cov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom tsim tawm, cov khoom siv tshiab thiab cov cuab yeej siv, cov kev xav tau ntawm kev siv nyiaj, cov kev cai thiab kev pib ua haujlwm hauv thaj chaw, kev thov ntau heev hauv cov lag luam tshwj xeeb, cov qauv hloov pauv, cov neeg nkag tshiab, thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom siv raw.
Muaj ntau lub koom haum tshiab tau tshwm sim los sib koom tes thiab daws cov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom xa tuaj sai sai. Cov thev naus laus zis tseem ceeb ntawm kev ntim khoom tau raug tso cai rau lwm tus neeg koom nrog los txhawb kev hloov pauv mus rau cov qauv lag luam tshiab thiab los daws cov teeb meem kev txwv ntawm peev xwm. Kev teeb tsa tus qauv ntawm cov chips tau raug tsom mus rau kev txhawb nqa cov ntawv thov chips dav dua, tshawb nrhiav cov lag luam tshiab, thiab txo cov nra hnyav ntawm tus kheej. Xyoo 2024, cov tebchaws tshiab, cov tuam txhab, cov chaw, thiab cov kab sim tshiab tau pib cog lus rau kev ntim khoom siab heev - ib qho kev hloov pauv uas yuav txuas ntxiv mus rau xyoo 2025.
Kev ntim khoom siab heev tseem tsis tau txog qib siab ntawm thev naus laus zis. Nruab nrab xyoo 2024 thiab 2025, kev ntim khoom siab heev tau ua tiav cov ntaub ntawv tshiab, thiab cov khoom siv thev naus laus zis nthuav dav kom suav nrog cov qauv tshiab ntawm cov thev naus laus zis AP thiab platform uas twb muaj lawm, xws li Intel lub cim tshiab EMIB thiab Foveros. Kev ntim khoom ntawm CPO (Chip-on-Package Optical Devices) systems kuj tau txais kev saib xyuas hauv kev lag luam, nrog rau cov thev naus laus zis tshiab tau tsim los nyiam cov neeg siv khoom thiab nthuav cov khoom tsim tawm.
Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sib xyaw ua ke siab heev sawv cev rau lwm yam kev lag luam uas muaj feem cuam tshuam nrog, sib qhia cov phiaj xwm kev tsim kho, cov ntsiab cai tsim qauv sib koom tes, thiab cov cuab yeej xav tau nrog cov ntim khoom siab heev.
Ntxiv rau cov thev naus laus zis tseem ceeb no, ntau yam thev naus laus zis "tsis pom kev" tab tom tsav tsheb kom muaj kev sib txawv thiab kev tsim kho tshiab ntawm cov ntim khoom siab heev: kev daws teeb meem xa hluav taws xob, cov thev naus laus zis embedding, kev tswj hwm thermal, cov ntaub ntawv tshiab (xws li iav thiab cov organic tiam tom ntej), kev sib txuas siab heev, thiab cov qauv khoom siv / cuab yeej tshiab. Txij li cov khoom siv hluav taws xob mobile thiab cov neeg siv khoom mus rau kev txawj ntse artificial thiab cov chaw khaws ntaub ntawv, cov ntim khoom siab heev tab tom kho nws cov thev naus laus zis kom tau raws li qhov xav tau ntawm txhua lub khw, ua rau nws cov khoom tiam tom ntej kuj ua tau raws li qhov xav tau ntawm kev ua lag luam.
Lub lag luam ntim khoom kim heev yuav nce mus txog $ 8 billion hauv xyoo 2024, nrog rau kev cia siab tias yuav tshaj $ 28 billion los ntawm xyoo 2030, uas qhia txog tus nqi loj hlob txhua xyoo (CAGR) ntawm 23% txij li xyoo 2024 txog 2030. Hais txog kev lag luam kawg, kev lag luam ntim khoom loj tshaj plaws yog "kev sib txuas lus thiab kev tsim kho vaj tse," uas tau tsim ntau dua 67% ntawm cov nyiaj tau los hauv xyoo 2024. Ua raws li ze yog "kev lag luam txawb thiab cov neeg siv khoom," uas yog kev lag luam loj hlob sai tshaj plaws nrog CAGR ntawm 50%.
Hais txog cov khoom ntim khoom, cov khoom ntim khoom kim heev yuav pom CAGR ntawm 33% txij li xyoo 2024 txog 2030, nce ntxiv los ntawm kwv yees li 1 billion units hauv xyoo 2024 mus rau ntau dua 5 billion units los ntawm xyoo 2030. Qhov kev loj hlob tseem ceeb no yog vim muaj kev thov kom muaj cov khoom ntim khoom kim heev, thiab tus nqi muag khoom nruab nrab siab dua piv rau cov khoom ntim khoom uas tsis tshua muaj neeg paub, uas yog vim muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi los ntawm pem hauv ntej mus rau tom qab vim yog 2.5D thiab 3D platforms.
3D stacked nco (HBM, 3DS, 3D NAND, thiab CBA DRAM) yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws, xav tias yuav suav txog ntau dua 70% ntawm kev lag luam los ntawm xyoo 2029. Cov platforms loj hlob sai tshaj plaws suav nrog CBA DRAM, 3D SoC, active Si interposers, 3D NAND stacks, thiab embedded Si bridges.
Cov teeb meem nkag mus rau cov khoom siv ntim khoom kim heev tab tom nce siab zuj zus, nrog rau cov chaw tsim khoom loj thiab IDMs cuam tshuam rau kev ntim khoom siab heev nrog lawv cov peev xwm pem hauv ntej. Kev siv cov thev naus laus zis sib txuas ua rau qhov xwm txheej nyuaj dua rau cov neeg muag khoom OSAT, vim tias tsuas yog cov neeg uas muaj peev xwm ua haujlwm wafer thiab cov peev txheej txaus tuaj yeem tiv taus kev poob nyiaj ntau thiab kev nqis peev ntau.
Los ntawm xyoo 2024, cov chaw tsim khoom nco uas sawv cev los ntawm Yangtze Memory Technologies, Samsung, SK Hynix, thiab Micron yuav tswj hwm, tuav 54% ntawm kev lag luam ntim khoom kim heev, vim tias 3D stacked nco ua tau zoo dua lwm lub platform hauv cov nyiaj tau los, cov khoom tsim tawm, thiab wafer yield. Qhov tseeb, qhov ntim yuav khoom ntawm kev ntim khoom nco ntau dua li ntawm kev ntim khoom logic. TSMC ua tus thawj coj nrog 35% feem ntawm kev lag luam, ua raws li Yangtze Memory Technologies nrog 20% ntawm tag nrho kev lag luam. Cov neeg nkag tshiab xws li Kioxia, Micron, SK Hynix, thiab Samsung xav tias yuav nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam 3D NAND sai sai, ntes tau feem ntawm kev lag luam. Samsung qeb thib peb nrog 16% feem, ua raws li SK Hynix (13%) thiab Micron (5%). Raws li 3D stacked nco txuas ntxiv hloov zuj zus thiab cov khoom tshiab tau tso tawm, cov khoom lag luam ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom no xav tias yuav loj hlob zoo. Intel ua raws li ze nrog 6%.
Cov chaw tsim khoom OSAT saum toj kawg nkaus xws li Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing (ASE), Siliconware Precision Industries (SPIL), JCET, Amkor, thiab TF tseem koom nrog kev ntim khoom kawg thiab kev sim ua haujlwm. Lawv tab tom sim ntes cov feem ntawm kev ua lag luam nrog cov kev daws teeb meem ntim khoom siab raws li ultra-high-definition fan-out (UHD FO) thiab pwm interposers. Lwm qhov tseem ceeb yog lawv txoj kev koom tes nrog cov chaw tsim khoom thiab cov chaw tsim khoom siv sib xyaw (IDMs) kom ntseeg tau tias muaj kev koom tes hauv cov haujlwm no.
Niaj hnub no, kev paub txog kev ntim khoom siab kawg nce ntxiv rau ntawm cov thev naus laus zis pem hauv ntej (FE), nrog rau kev sib txuas ua ke ua ib qho kev hloov tshiab. BESI, los ntawm nws txoj kev koom tes nrog AMAT, ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv qhov kev hloov tshiab no, muab cov khoom siv rau cov tuam txhab loj xws li TSMC, Intel, thiab Samsung, txhua tus uas tab tom sib tw rau kev tswj hwm kev ua lag luam. Lwm cov neeg muab khoom siv, xws li ASMPT, EVG, SET, thiab Suiss MicroTech, nrog rau Shibaura thiab TEL, kuj yog cov khoom tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom xa tuaj.
Ib qho kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb ntawm thev naus laus zis thoob plaws txhua lub platform ntim khoom ua tau zoo, tsis hais hom twg los xij, yog qhov txo qis ntawm qhov sib txuas ntawm lub suab - ib qho kev hloov pauv cuam tshuam nrog through-silicon vias (TSVs), TMVs, microbumps, thiab txawm tias hybrid bonding, qhov kawg uas tau tshwm sim los ua qhov kev daws teeb meem tseem ceeb tshaj plaws. Ntxiv mus, via diameters thiab wafer thicknesses kuj xav tias yuav txo qis.
Qhov kev nce qib thev naus laus zis no yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov chips thiab chipsets uas nyuaj dua los txhawb kev ua cov ntaub ntawv sai dua thiab kev xa mus thaum ua kom muaj kev siv hluav taws xob tsawg dua thiab kev poob qis, thaum kawg ua rau muaj kev sib koom ua ke ntau dua thiab bandwidth rau cov tiam neeg yav tom ntej.
Kev sib txuas 3D SoC zoo li yog lub hauv paus tseem ceeb rau kev ntim khoom tshiab, vim nws ua rau muaj kev sib txuas me me thaum ua rau thaj chaw ntawm SoC loj dua. Qhov no ua rau muaj peev xwm ua tau xws li kev sib sau ua ke ntawm cov chipsets los ntawm kev faib SoC tuag, yog li ua rau muaj kev sib xyaw ua ke ntawm cov ntim khoom. TSMC, nrog nws cov thev naus laus zis 3D Fabric, tau dhau los ua tus thawj coj hauv kev ntim khoom 3D SoIC siv kev sib txuas ua ke. Ntxiv mus, kev sib koom ua ke ntawm chip-to-wafer yuav pib nrog cov khoom me me ntawm HBM4E 16-txheej DRAM stacks.
Chipset thiab kev sib koom ua ke heterogeneous yog lwm qhov tseem ceeb uas tsav tsheb HEP ntim khoom siv, nrog rau cov khoom tam sim no muaj nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam uas siv txoj hauv kev no. Piv txwv li, Intel's Sapphire Rapids siv EMIB, Ponte Vecchio siv Co-EMIB, thiab Meteor Lake siv Foveros. AMD yog lwm tus neeg muag khoom loj uas tau siv txoj hauv kev thev naus laus zis no hauv nws cov khoom, xws li nws cov txheej txheem Ryzen thiab EPYC tiam thib peb, nrog rau 3D chipset architecture hauv MI300.
Nvidia kuj tseem yuav siv cov qauv tsim chipset no hauv nws cov koob Blackwell tiam tom ntej. Raws li cov neeg muag khoom loj xws li Intel, AMD, thiab Nvidia twb tau tshaj tawm lawm, ntau pob khoom suav nrog kev faib ua feem lossis rov ua dua yuav muaj rau xyoo tom ntej. Ntxiv mus, txoj hauv kev no yuav raug siv rau hauv cov ntawv thov ADAS siab kawg hauv xyoo tom ntej.
Feem ntau, qhov sib txawv yog kev koom ua ke ntau lub platform 2.5D thiab 3D rau hauv tib lub pob, uas qee tus neeg hauv kev lag luam twb tau xa mus rau 3.5D ntim. Yog li ntawd, peb xav tias yuav pom cov pob khoom uas koom ua ke 3D SoC chips, 2.5D interposers, embedded silicon bridges, thiab co-packaged optics. Cov platform ntim khoom tshiab 2.5D thiab 3D nyob rau ntawm lub qab ntuj khwb, ua rau qhov nyuaj ntawm HEP ntim ntxiv.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Yim Hli-11-2025